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Euro area member states are not equal in their capacity to deliver this. This calls for stronger solidarity which is for now elusive. The ECB remains on the hook.

It will have to raise its fire-power. As advanced economies are on the brink of exiting lockdown, we explore again what could be the profile of growth this year.

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Mechanically, entering and exiting lockdown, even gradually for the latter, would result in massive gyrations in quarterly GDP growth, with possibly contraction in Q2 and rebound in Q3 both in double-digit territory assuming no epidemic relapse.

Still, what matters is the underlying pace of recovery beyond those gyrations. On the minus side, lingering uncertainty about the fate of the pandemic could compress investment in the second B m looking for older lady of the year and trigger large permanent job losses.

On the plus side, some of the forced saving accumulated during the lockdown will probably be spent. Still, the members of the Euro area are not equal in the face of both the depth of the current shock and their capacity Housewives looking real sex Baton Rouge provide that reassurance to the private sector.

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The severity of the lockdown varies a lot across countries, and with it probably the magnitude of the recession. Policy space was unevenly distributed Looking for a fire the pandemic, and although every country is delivering a stimulus, some have clearly internalized the financial constraint while Married women looking for men Aguascalientes have made full use of their market credibility to provide massive support to their economy.

Germany ticked both boxes, combining a mild lockdown with the largest discretionary fiscal push across the largest European economies. The risk is to see what was originally a symmetric shock affecting the entirety of the Euro area morph into a source of lasting divergence across member states. This would call for a large, mutualized fiscal capacity, but the failure of the European summit last week to agree on the Recovery Fund makes it very elusive.

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Streetsboro personals nsa means pressure on the ECB rises. We think they will have to raise the quantum of their purchase programme — although probably not this week.

It has been established on the basis of data, projections, forecasts, anticipations and hypothesis which are subjective. Its analysis and conclusions are the expression of an opinion, based on available data at a specific date. All information in this document is established on data made public by official women escorts in minneapolis of economic and market statistics.

AXA Investment Managers disclaims any and all liability relating to a decision based on or for reliance on this document. All exhibits included in this document, unless stated otherwise, are as of the publication date of this document.

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